Murray is the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. The article offers examples of how deterministic code can produce non-deterministic results.
Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Nor do I find invocation of their stories very relevant since the sociology of the science enterprise has changed so much. Ex-chief scientific adviser sets up rival panel of experts over Covid-19 ‘lack of transparency’ You can see how fiddling with the numbers could generate some very complicated math very quickly.
I worked at Google between 2006 and 2014, where I was a senior software engineer working on Maps, Gmail and account security. This code appears to be trying to calculate R0 for “places”. My boss never liked my response to his usual question of “Is it working now?” of “It seems to be”.
I am not sure that this is the takedown that some think.
I’ve chosen to remain anonymous partly because of the intense fighting that surrounds lockdown, but there’s also a deeper reason. By Sue Denim (pseudonym) – LockDownSkeptics.com: Imperial finally released a derivative of Ferguson’s code. Thus far the best model I’ve seen is from a civil engineering professor with a water resources background applying a pond storage model.
Investigation reveals the truth: the code produces critically different results, even for identical starting seeds and parameters. Note the phrasing here: Imperial know their code has such bugs, but act as if it’s some inherent randomness of the universe, rather than a result of amateur coding. Readers may be familiar with the averaging of outputs of climate model outputs in Climate Science, where it’s known as the ensemble mean.
Much of the code consists of formulas for which no purpose is given. So, with or without realizing what you are doing, you tweak it till it does. The latter will give different results even for the same inputs.
Like the National Academy of Sciences recommendation that the writing of climate science papers should include collaboration with a decent statistician in order to eliminate some of the many statistical faux pas often found therein? From the Lockdownsceptics page is an interesting comment by commenter Anne which rather obviates the concerns about Ferguson’s code. I saw this exact thing recently where I work. Firstly the author does not appear to have read or analysed the code. But what any major software project beyond a few 10,000 lines of code needs is a qualified software architect at the beginning to stop the spaghetti factory from getting started, and inject process, traceability, and regression testing on bug fixes/changes. A widely followed model for projecting Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever, and now epidemiologists are criticizing it as flawed and misleading for both the public and policy makers. Many here wishing someone would review the GW models, however….the modelers will not allow a proper investigation and hide their inputs claiming copy write etc.
It attempts to simulate households, schools, offices, people and their movements, etc. The problem was it required management to have intuitions about the shape of the probability curves of various parameters. As well as releasing music under her own name, she also performs in her duo-group: Robots In Disguise, with Dee Plume. I’ll illustrate with a few bugs.
As the investment required rises, in the effort to satisfy senior management that they are thinking rigorously, the department breaks every significant parameter down further.
I’ve seen this exact failure more many times in my career. But if that butterfly really does have a substantial effect, then the model ought to give substantially different results each time. by RICHARD BLACK Non-deterministic outputs. the machine clock, rather than as definitive inputs. Such “SEIR” models then use what researchers know about a virus’s behavior, such as how easily it spreads and how long it takes for symptoms of infection to appear, to calculate how long it takes for people to move from susceptible to infected to recovered (or dead). I guess they were not so much confident as fraudulent. Striking reduction in lethality in ‘2nd waves’, How to Live With Risk in the COVID-19 World, Lies, Damned Lies and Health Statistics – the Deadly Danger of False Positives. Not what I expected.
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